Changing Trains

The Environmental Issues Arising Out of the Settlement

In a long assessment of the opportunities and risks for the environment in a United Cyprus, Paul Hardisty observes:

The scene is set. A solution in the context of EU membership will bring huge potential opportunities for conservation and responsible environmental management, but also real risks of uncontrolled and rapid development which could horribly disfigure northern landscapes and destroy irreplaceable habitat, some of which has even yet not been catalogued. A development free-for-all in the north could wreak untold damage before the authorities have even had the time to develop a conservation strategy which balances the need for development and economic improvement in the north, with protection of areas which represent legitimate long-term opportunities for preserving the last and best parts of Cyprus’ natural heritage.

For more see here.

'No Means Permanent Partition'

The Cyprus Mail's Sunday edition reports on the ' true cost of saying no'. It carries extensive quotations from diplomats in Nicosia making the stark warning that: "A ‘no’ vote is a ‘yes’ vote for partition… permanent partition." The news report gives every appearance of being the outcome of a serious and concerted effort by diplomats on the island to confront large sections of the Greek Cypriot population with the consequences of rejecting the Plan. It also carries the impression of controlled panic. The reported comments continue:

....a negative response from the Greek Cypriot side would lead to the massive migration of Turkish Cypriots, not only abroad but to the south of the Green Line, leaving the north as an outpost of Turkey, empty of Cypriots. “It could also lead to the dashing of a settlement between Turkey and Greece on the Aegean. It could lead to Turkey shifting direction if doors close in Europe,” he added.

Then there is the issue of recognition of the north, starting with Islamic states, which for 30 years have held back, always giving the benefit of the doubt to the Greek Cypriots. “A ‘no’ vote could be viewed as a racist act against Muslims in general and Turkish Cypriots in particular and it would be viewed by Europe as an un-European act. “It would really not be wise for the Greek Cypriots to reject this and it would be such a slap in the face for the Turkish Cypriot people.”

The diplomat said the leaders of both sides had been told to stop talking down the plan and to go out and tell their respective populations that the solution that is on the table involves compromises and sacrifices. “We are very worried, but somebody’s got to go out and tell people that this is not a choice between this plan and a better one, but between this and probable permanent partition,” said the diplomat.

A second diplomat, also close to the talks, said: “It’s not like the Greek Cypriots will be pariahs. They will still get into the EU and get the money and the EU won’t take any sanctions against them. “But for Cyprus to get what it wants within the EU will become more difficult,” he warned. “The consequences would be a political disaster for Greek Cypriots who have been saying for 30 years that they want a settlement. The prospects for any future settlement would involve deep suspicions from the international community.”

He also spoke of the eventual recognition of the north, which would lead to tensions on the island. “It would be a mess. Greek Cypriots would have no credibility and there would be nothing for Cyprus for the foreseeable future. The north would be 75 per cent settlers instead of the 50 per cent it is now. There will be a silent partition and the Turks, if they are clever, will come out as the good guys. The north will have a half and half status. “The leaders just have to get this through a referendum but they will need to show an unequivocal commitment,” said the diplomat.

One foreign analyst said he was hearing a lot of Greek Cypriots say they would turn down the Annan plan.
“The biggest problem is that too many people think there is another hope afterwards, that this can be turned down because every time peace talks collapse, the UN comes along again a few years down the line. So it’s OK to say ‘no’, because when the next plan comes, Cyprus will be in the EU and can bargain for a better settlement. “But I have not yet met a foreigner who believes that. The prevailing view is that everyone is fed up to the back teeth of the Cyprus problem.”

The analyst echoed the diplomats’ warnings of ‘silent partition’. He said the EU would probably turn round and tell Cyprus it intended to establish a new set of relations with the north and that it would continue talks with Turkey about membership.

Tourist Boom for Cyprus?

Whilst the economic consequences of reunification continues to be hotly debated, particularly in the south, the following comments published here are of interest. The Greek Cypriot owner of a travel agency, one of the largest in the market, observes:

"There's no doubt in everybody's mind that they're going to accept," says Noel Josephides of Sunvil Holidays, who travelled to the island this week. "Even hardliners are saying that if we don't take this opportunity, we're finished."

Josephides's company started up in 1970 as a tour operator to Kyrenia, the main port on the north coast. Since the Turkish invasion of 1974, Sunvil has focused its operations in the south, the destination for the vast majority of the one million British tourists to Cyprus each year.

Tourism to the north is minimal; the regime is regarded as illegal by most of the world community, and direct flights from the UK are banned. A settlement could transform tourism to Cyprus. Many of the island's attractions, from fishing villages to crusader castles and Greek ruins, are in the north, and the former resort of Famagusta has been off limits for 30 years. "There will be an overall increase in visitors, and a big demand for two-centre holidays," Josephides predicts. "It will be a more rounded product."

The timing of the proposed settlement could not be better, as it coincides with the start of the main tourist season in May. With millions of British travellers still undecided about where to take their holidays, Cyprus could have its best-ever year.

Site Review - Cyprus Media Net

Cyprus Media Net is, perhaps, one of the most important sites related to Cyprus on the Web. A recent addition to the range of resources available, it provides swift translations of articles published in the newspapers are both communities. Importantly, the articles are then translated into either greek or turkish or the english language. Funded through UNOPS and developed by the Cambridge Foundation for Peace the site provides an important service in developing a practical basis upon which to understand the contending perspectives present in both major communities. We wholeheartedly recommend readers of this blog to refer back to this site on a regular basis during the period ahead.

There are a small number of improvements which could be made to the service. It is difficult to understand why the three principal english-language newspapers on the island - the daily Cyprus Mail, the Cyprus Weekly and the northern based Cyprus Today have no presence on the site. In their own way these newspapers are a significant presence on the island - not least because they exert influence within the diplomatic community. Their absence on the web site diminishes the comprehensive information and opinion available to site visitors.

Sometimes the quality of translation leaves a lot to be desired. This is particularly true when scrutinising articles translated from turkish into english, but is also apparent in translations from turkish into greek and vice versa. Given the sensitivities which attach themselves to key words and phrases this is an unfortunate deficiency which can lead to serious misunderstandings.

Finally, there is frequently an underrepresentation of Turkish Cypriot news sources. At the time of writing, 4:30 p.m. on the 28/02/04, of the 18 articles recently translated only one originates from the north. The lone article from Kibris also happens to be two day old news . This represents a serious imbalance.

Who Takes Responsibility for the Plan?

An article in Politis comments on the adverse reaction to a recent statement by Vassos Lyssarides to the effect that certain provisions of the Annan plan – such as the Presiding Council or the rotating presidency – had been accepted by former governments and negotiating teams. As the Politis commentator asserts;

the Greek Cypriots side headed by Glafkos Clerides had recommended or had accepted provisions, included currently in the Annan plan, without having consulted neither the National Council nor the people. And if now, we seek changes so as to render the Annan plan more functional, our leaders should at first inform us on what they suggested or accepted so that we would stop blaming the foreign mediators.

This raises a series of questions given the the recent reponse to Lyssarides' assertion:

Is it perhaps that the Annan plan did suddenly fall from the sky? Is it that the governments of Clerides and Vassiliou that had been negotiating in good will for 15 consecutive years had nothing to do with the formation of the plan? Then, what had they been negotiating? Towards what direction they urged or discouraged the various mediators?

For the writer it is obvious that '...our own long-term policy led to the current results.'

What If the Greek Cypriots Vote "No"?

'What will happen if Turks say "yes" and the Greeks say "no?" What will be the consequences of a "yes" by Turkish Cypriots and "no" by Greek Cypriots?' So asks Mehmet Ali Birand in an article published here. Apparently, Birant has been 'phoning around the capitals of EU countries' and talking to unnamed EU Commision officials, making it difficult to access the status of the harvested remarks. But this is what he presents as the general concensus that emerges:

The Annan plan will be destroyed. However, Cyprus will be admitted into the EU. The admission treaty has been approved by the parliaments of every EU member and their membership cannot be stopped or delayed. A very difficult period in the EU will begin and legal troubles will arise. On the other hand, the EU will lift all the trade embargoes on the KKTC and will be forced to officially contact the KKTC and try to sign a separate treaty. This will mean the EU accepting KKTC's equality and sovereignty. Additionally, this will open the way for the KKTC directly receiving a potion of the assistance sent to Cyprus. Cyprus will no longer be an obstacle to Turkey's EU membership and Turkey will receive a date to start EU membership negotiations in December.

He goes on:

The KKTC will remain as it is and will be recognized internationally. The removal of Turkish troops, the return of the Greek Cypriot refugees or the establishment of a mechanism for mutual compensation will no longer be considered.

And concludes:

This is the most desirable scenario for the Turkish side. The KKTC will show its good will, will protect the current status quo and will be recognized internationally. This is Denktas's dream.

The Annan Plan: The Referendum Process

Both the english language newspaper Cyprus Mail and the greek language Alithia (no web presence) will be carrying a daily article which sets out to explain basic aspects of the Annan Plan. This blog has secured the permission of the author, Yiouli Taki, to post those articles each day.

The key points - The referendum process

THE ANNAN Plan’s Foundation Agreement provides for the holding of separate simultaneous referenda in the two communities. Towards this end, the leaders of both sides, together with Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom have to agree that the Foundation Agreement be put to the people in separate simultaneous referenda.

After the recent meeting in New York, the second revised text of the Foundation Agreement was tabled anew and all parties committed themselves to conducting the referenda on the 21st of April.

The Greek Cypriots would have to vote on the following question: “Do you approve the Foundation Agreement with all its annexes, as well as the constitution of the Greek Cypriot constituent state and the provisions as to its laws to be in force, to ring into being a new state of affairs in which Cyprus joins the European Union united?

Yes/No”

A similar question that would simultaneously ratify the constitution of the Turkish Cypriot constituent state would be put to the Turkish Cypriot community.

The Foundation Agreement approval procedure is validated by the following statement, which establishes the new state of affairs. “We the Greek and Turkish Cypriots, exercising our inherent constitutive power, by our free and democratic, separately expressed common will adopt this Foundation Agreement.”

The Foundation Agreement will come into force as long as both sides ratify it through separate referenda. Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom must also commit themselves through the signing of an accord with the United Republic of Cyprus on issues concerning their position in the procedure of implementing their role as guarantor powers in the new state of affairs.

The date the agreement comes into effect would be the day after the results of the referenda have been confirmed and the UN Secretary-general confirms the approval of the agreement. The 21st of April will be the national holiday of the United Cyprus Republic.

The preamble to the main articles of the plan reads:
i. Affirming that Cyprus is our common home and recalling that we were co-founders of the Republic established in 1960
ii. Resolved that the tragic events of the past shall never be repeated and renouncing forever the threat or the use of force, or any domination by or of either side
iii. Acknowledging each other’s distinct identity and integrity and that our relationship is not one of majority and minority but of political equality
iv. Deciding to renew our partnership on that basis and determined that this new bi-zonal partnership shall ensure a common future in friendship, peace, security and prosperity in an independent and united Cyprus
v. Underlining our commitment to international law and the principles and purposes of the United Nations
vi. Committed to respecting democratic principles, individual human rights and fundamental freedoms, as well as each other’s cultural, religious, political, social and linguistic identity
vii. Determined to maintain special ties of friendship with, and to respect the balance between, Greece and Turkey, within a peaceful environment in the Eastern Mediterranean
viii. Looking forward to joining the European Union, and to the day when Turkey does likewise
We, the Greek Cypriots and the Turkish Cypriots, exercising our inherent constitutive power, by our free and democratic, separately expressed common will adopt this Foundation Agreement.

www.cyprusdecides.org

*The author of the article has asked me to include the underlined text which was edited out of the piece at it appeared in the Cyprus Mail

Foreign Diplomats Assess the Talks So Far

Following on from yesterday's observation that most newspapers and other media sources are reporting the negotiations process from their own community's perspective, we reproduce observations from others who may have pertinent things to say. The complete article, from which these comments have been taken, can be found here:

“The entry of Greece and Turkey is not a sure thing if the two leaders can reach a nice package,” said one diplomat, who added that he, for one, wouldn’t bet on it. “They are still at the stage where they are getting it all out there,” said another source close to the talks. A week into the negotiations, the Turkish Cypriot side has submitted the entire list of changes it wants to see to the Annan plan. The Greek Cypriot side’s is believed to be on the way. “By next week everything is going to be out there,” said the source but he added that they sides had not yet reached the ‘give and take’ stage of the negotiations.

Diplomats said that obviously there would be some areas where there will be a head-to-head conflict. The issues for the Turkish Cypriots were territory, bizonality and the continued presence of Turkish troops.

The Greek Cypriot side has issues about the functionality of the Annan plan – whether or not it will work -- and the economic cost, which they put at around £17 billion, which many members of the international community say is exaggerated.

“I’m convinced they can come out of the process with a plan that is fair and balanced, even if it’s not everything they wanted,” said one diplomat. “And it will be very difficult for either leader to say its not good enough,” he added.

A second diplomat said that Denktash, who is opposed to the Annan plan, was being kept in line by Ankara, even though he “escapes the leash sometimes” he was still unpredictable, he said and added that the veteran Turkish Cypriot leader might part from the process somewhere down the line. “But Turkey feels it’s important at this stage to keep him in the picture. He is a maverick figure but he is surrounded by people who do want a settlement. It is desirable to still have him on the team and they are trying hard to manage him but not always succeeding,” the second diplomat said.

“We worry more about people’s attitudes on the Greek side. Will Papadopoulos sign up to it, this is a real issue given his history but he is also very conscious of his responsibilities. But if they want to settle it its now or never. There is no other credible model to the Annan plan.”

A third diplomat said Denktash was more or less in the past and he is no longer surrounded by ‘yes’ men. The Greek Cypriots will be dealing with people they can work with. Denktash doesn’t carry the whole machine behind him any more and the most important decisions are taken by other people,” he said. “Now he is just praying for the Greek Cypriots to mess up and if the Greek Cypriots believe they can’t work with the Turkish Cypriots they should give up asking for a settlement.” The diplomat said there were also people in Turkey waiting for Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to “fall flat on his face” over Cyprus. “But the government there is determined that if it all falls apart, it will be only because of the Greek Cypriots.”

But the sources close to the talks said they two leaders could reach a settlement by March 22. “It would be an enormous plus if they could reach an agreement by themselves even if they didn’t reach an agreement on every last law,” said the source. “That would obviously make a lot of difference to the referendum if Papadopoulos could come and say he was satisfied. It could make the difference between approval or rejection of the plan.” The source said it was more likely however that Greece and Turkey would have to come into the talks but that while Denktash would probably not be given any chance to object to what Ankara would decide, Greece would never interfere in that way.

“Denktash is being pushed from on high. The government in Turkey is strong and determined … and he can’t play them off against each other any more. But Papadopoulos might have a pretty strong leeway. He will calculate and assuming there was a reasonable compromise he will grudgingly live with it,” said the source. “His calculation will be of the political cost of not going along. That is the determining factor.”

The first diplomat said that for Denktash also crunch time was approaching. “He has never had the pushing he has had from Turkey. Bowing out would be the sensible thing for him to do so he can go down in history as a great leader, which he is in a sense,” he said. “But I have two rules about Denktash: one is never underestimate him, and never try to predict him. He is capable of surprises.”

Parties Take Positions in the South

The Cyprus Weeky offers a brief guide to the current positions of the political parties in the south in relation to the Annan Plan.

New Horizons - the only party to come out strongly against the plan, on a unified platform, and opposed to the fresh round of negotiations.

DIKO - will say No to the UN blueprint if it is not improved 'substantially' to become both 'functional and viable...Nothing has been decided and nothing is over yet,” Diko said in a statement after a long meeting of the central committee. 'A new round of negotiations begins, within choking timetables and not under the best conditions, and at the end of it we will decide whether to take the path towards the desirable solution or not,” it added.

AKEL - is the only one that has given united and strong backing to the President. The main 'behind-the-scenes' protagonist, Akel leader and House President Demetris Christofias said on Wednesday: 'This new round of talks is a good, very good and unique opportunity to solve this long-lasting problem.' He went on 'President Papadopoulos goes to the dialogue feeling strengthened by the support given by the majority of National Council members and believes he will succeed in making the sought amendments.' But Christofias also voiced reservations concerning Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, who insists on tabling proposals to change the substance of the UN plan in order to hinder the procedure.

EDEK - seems to have a real split within, as honorary leader Vassos Lyssarides has harshly criticised Papadopoulos’s acceptance of the UN conditions, especially that of the Secretary General acting as an arbitrator. However, Edek leader Yiannakis Omirou who was in New York himself and backed every step taken by Papadopoulos, can only send out messages of cautious optimism. 'We wish for a settlement to be reached as soon as possible. But this will depend on the Turkish side’s position,' he said. 'Unfortunately, latest statements by Turkish officials talking again about the existence of two peoples, out of which springs the sovereignty of the state, undermine directly the negotiating process,' he added.

The Greens - are not only against the Annan Plan’s philosophy but also detests the agreed arbitrator role of the UN and the April referenda. Nonetheless, it backs the President in the hope that he will achieve substantial amendments to the blueprint and party leader George Perdikis has mellowed his initial criticism against Papadopoulos over the New York developments.

The United Democrats - led by the former President George Vassiliou appear the most strongly in favour of the proposed solution.

364% Increase in Those Seeking Asylum in the South

It is reported that the number of people seeking asylum in the EU has dropped by 22 percent in 2003 from the previous year, but considerable increases have occurred in the new EU states. The highest percentage rise has been recorded in Cyprus - 364%.

In an article published in the Cyprus Weekly (not online) on February 27, it is revealed that:

Only six applicants for asylum out of a total of 4,877 have been approved since the Asylum Service (Cyprus south) was set up in January 2002. Another 800 cases have been disposed of, while about 4,200 are still pending. The figures, given in reply to a Cyprus Weekly written questionnaire, reveal the tremendous workload that has to be cleared by the 10 members staff of the Interior Ministry's Asylum Service. There were only 839 asylum cases in 2002 concerning 952 people but numbers rose dramatically during 2003 with 4,036 applications piling up in respect to 4,411 people.

Whatever the truth, or otherwise, of the Weekly's claim that the ' majority of asylum seekers are considered to be people who come and see as students but work illegally and then apply asylum when their stay permit expires' this is a quite appalling situation. A situation which the government itself bares considerable responsibility for producing. This from a longer article published in the Cyprus Mail late last year (26/10/03):

The government has tightened rules governing foreign students to reduce the chance of migrants using student visas as a backdoor to illegal work. Weekly checks being carried out by the Immigration Department on students’ attendance records at colleges and the increase of registration fees as well as bank guarantees rising from £1,000 to £2,000 has left foreign students struggling to make it through an academic year. “If we are caught working illegally, we are immediately deported and blacklisted so we basically lose everything that we have worked for in college so far,” the student said.