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LAST week, in his defining speech to the Greek Cypriot people urging a “resounding no” in the referendum on the Annan plan, President Tassos Papadopoulos urged his countrymen to dismiss the “blackmail” about the possibility of recognition of the occupied north in the event of a ‘yes’ vote in the north and a ‘no’ vote in the south.
“There are no conditions for the recognition of the pseudo-state by countries that matter, like the countries of the European Union,” he told his audience. “For these countries have already signed with the Republic of Cyprus the Treaty of Accession which prohibits such recognition. What is said about international isolation is a blackmail without any substance.”
Of course, formal recognition may indeed be limited to countries “that do not matter”, but it became clear this week that countries that do matter have no intention of maintaining the status quo in their relations with the Turkish Cypriots.
Many may choose to trust the president, just as he says he trusts the people: “I trust your judgment,” he said in his televised addressed. “I am certain you are not affected by false dilemmas and you are not scared by threats about alleged international isolation. I am certain you are not convinced about what it said that this is the chance.”
Blackmail, perhaps, but below are just a few extracts of statements from actors on the international stage, both (formerly) friendly and hostile, important and ‘unimportant’ on the consequences of Greek Cypriot ‘no’.
US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher: “We would not leave the Turkish Cypriots out in the cold, but I think it’s premature to speculate on what we might do if that were to occur.” Washington appreciates “all the work that particularly the Turkish government has done to get us here… We would not want to see the Turkish Cypriots penalised further if they voted in support of the referendum.”
US Secretary of State Colin Powell, asked if Washington might consider recognising the north if Greek Cypriots voted ‘no’: “Right now we are focusing on persuading both sides that it is in their interests, their very best interests to vote ‘yes’.”
EU Enlargement Commissioner Gunter Verheugen: “I would find it rather unfair that the Greek Cypriot community would enjoy benefits of membership, Turkey would enjoy benefits of entering the pre-accession phase, and only the Turkish Cypriots would get nothing.” The commissioner added he would personally undertake an initiative to overcome the economic isolation of the Turkish Cypriots, raising the possibility of starting direct trade with the regime in the north.
Verheugen also said “the absence of a solution would damage everyone,” warning that the status quo would deepen the island’s division and that the dividing line would become de-facto an external EU border. “I have to inform you that in case of no solution a regulation would define the terms under which EU law would apply to the dividing line.”
Unnamed senior US official: “We would do everything we could to ameliorate the effects on Turkish Cypriots, which would include an examination of all the policies related to their unfair isolation.”
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev: “If the Turkish side says yes and the Greek side says no, we will start the recognition process… Azerbaijan will be among the first countries to recognise (northern Cyprus)... The Turks living there are our brothers.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul: “If a positive vote comes from the north and a negative vote from the south, then we will make every effort to make the world recognise Cyprus... starting with friend and brother countries and then on to the EU and the whole world.”
Pat Cox, President of the European Parliament: “The presumptions that a settlement or an other deal lies just around the corner are illusionary.” Cox also expressed deep disappointment “at the failure of imagination and courageous leadership exhibited by too many at this time.”
Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly President Peter Schieder: “Those seeking to obstruct the settlement will bear grave political responsibility for this failure and should not be allowed to take advantage of it. At the same time, the international community, and the European Union in particular, should not betray the hopes of those Cypriots who are in favour of the settlement, nor make them pay the price of failure.”
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