Changing Trains

'Whatever the Outcome in Cyprus - Erdogan Wins'

Originally published in the Lebonese 'The Daily Star'. The writer, Philip Robins, is a lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of Oxford and a Fellow of St. Antony's College. He is the author of Suits and Uniforms: Turkish Foreign Policy Since the Cold War. Also available here:

With simultaneous referendums scheduled for each side of the island of Cyprus on April 24, the drama of the UN-sponsored Cyprus peace process has seemingly entered its final phase. While there is still much to play for as the respective campaigns get underway, there is no doubt about who has already emerged as the main winner: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.

Whatever the various permutations of the votes, Erdogan has succeeded in neutralizing a perennial obstacle to Turkey's aspirations for European Union membership. Moreover, he has taken on and faced down the "deep state" (Turkey's equivalent of the intelligence services-run state) on the issue closest to its heart. The prospects for Erdogan and the AKP, post-Islamists in an increasingly post-Kemalist Turkey, have never looked better.

Initially, the position of the Turkish side toward Cyprus seemed impossible. The leader of the Turkish Cypriots, Rauf Denktash, had over the years come to be identified by the international community as the main obstacle to a Cyprus solution based on some form of political reunification. For Denktash, suspicious of the Greeks and cosseted in his own fiefdom, there was little incentive to deal. In this the Turkish political establishment, notably the military and the "old guard" in the Foreign Ministry, had repeatedly indulged him.

For Erdogan and his team, however, the solution was simple: Take the Cyprus issue that had come to symbolize all that was narrow-minded, uncooperative and hectoring about Turkish diplomacy and transform it into an eye-catching high point. In the way the situation was turned around, one is reminded of the about-face executed by former Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis toward Turkey in 1999. Athens replaced enmity with strategic friendship and Greek-Turkish relations have been cordial ever since.

There were three steps to Erdogan's new departure on Cyprus. First, following the AKP's sweeping electoral victory in November 2002, he indicated that a Cyprus solution was to be a priority of the new government. Second, he kept his powder dry through much of 2003, waiting until the general election in the northern part of the island last December led to the replacement of the rejectionist government of Dervis Eroglu by the pro-settlement party of Mehmet Ali Talat. Third, he declared, in the spirit of the energized diplomacy characterizing Turkey since the turn of the year, that Ankara would be at the forefront of political cooperation.

Since December, Ankara has unswervingly stuck to this strategy. It backed the resumption of the Cyprus peace process with a relaunched plan by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in New York on Feb. 13. It neutralized hard-liners at home with a combination of liberal institutional reform and the weight of its electoral mandate, re-emphasized by its sweeping victory in local elections in Turkey on March 28. It supported the sequential negotiation of the plan's substance through talks between the North and South, supplemented by the involvement of Ankara and Athens at Buergenstock in Switzerland. And now, with Annan having famously "filled in the gaps" left outstanding following these negotiations, the Erdogan government has forcefully committed itself to campaigning for a "yes" vote in the North.

With the likes of such popular and respected leaders as Erdogan and Talat in the "yes" camp, it is being widely predicted that the Turkish Cypriots will respond positively to the final version of the Annan plan. However, with Denktash and the opposition Republican People's Party in Turkey actively campaigning against, nothing can be taken for granted.

The main arguments of the rejectionists are two: First, that at 9,000 pages, including its annexes, the draft is too long and dense to be assimilated and discussed during such a brief period before the vote. Second, that the EU derogations on freedom of movement that are intrinsic to the bi-zonal, bi-communal nature of the agreement will not prove enduring because they are not to be included in the EU's primary law.

More darkly, Denktash and some of his supporters have predicted that the plan creates a context in which the island will eventually succumb to intercommunal conflict. In view of the backdrop of ethnic violence that blighted Cyprus between 1963 and 1974, even a single incident, real or contrived, at this most delicate of times could tip the scales against the proposal.

That in a way is no longer the main issue, especially if, as seems probable, the Greek Cypriots consider the plan to be several concessions too far and vote it down. In the main procedural flaw of the process, the government of Cyprus representing the Greek part of the island will accede to full membership of the EU on May 1, regardless of the outcome of the referendums. Like the Irish in their two referendums on the EU's Nice treaty, it may well take the Greek Cypriots a couple of plebiscites to come to terms with the new realities of the eastern Mediterranean.

The main outcome of the whole Cyprus peace process is that no one will be able to say it was Turkey that blocked a settlement. This means the Cyprus issue, which has arguably been the single most outstanding threat to converging relations between the EU and Turkey, may be neutralized. Moreover, if the outcome of the referendums really is a "yes and no," it will be difficult for the EU to retain its wide-ranging embargo on the North of the island. Indeed, some Europeans have even spoken of recognition for the Turkish entity.

Such a scenario makes it far more likely that in the crucial EU summit this December. Turkey will be given the long coveted date for the commencement of its accession negotiations with Europe. The desperation of the EU in the wake of the harrowing Madrid bombings to demonstrate publicly that it can work in partnership with the Muslim world is Turkey's second trump card. Should it receive a date in December, Turkey's EU membership will simply be a matter of time.

Inside Turkey, the second main outcome of the Cyprus peace process has been a public demonstration that it is the elected government, rather than the military, that now drives policy. The once mighty National Security Council, meeting at the beginning of this month to consider the Annan Plan, acknowledged this by saying that acceptance of the arrangement was a matter for the government. The fact that the military, with 30,000 troops in Cyprus and much of its prestige at home derived from the 1974 invasion, has not been uncooperative on the matter indicates just how times are changing. An accession date for Turkey in December will further tilt the balance in favor of the government.

Cyprus has long been the chosen litmus test by which state forces in Turkey demonstrated their potency. This explains its disproportionate importance in Turkish foreign policy, alongside altogether more obviously substantive issues such as Europe and NATO. In facing down these shadowy state forces on their own ground, it is the AKP government that has on this occasion passed the test.

'Intention Of Greek Side To Prevent Referendum Is Completely Away From Good Will' - Gul

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ANKARA - Turkish Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Gul said on Tuesday that Greek Cypriot side wanted to come out May 1 by delaying referendum process and it was an initiative which was far away from good will. Gul said that Turkey would be loyal to the agreement and he called the United Nations Secretary General and the European Union (EU) for mission.

Delivering a speech at Justice and Development Party (AK Party) group meeting, Gul evaluated developments about Cyprus issue. Noting that they tried to solve Cyprus question, which was considered as ''national cause'', in favor of Turkish Cypriots and Turkey, Gul said that the governments carried on this policy by showing insolubility as solution. Noting that this policy which had been carried on until today would not continue similarly and AK Party government did not consider insolubility as solution, Gul said that Greek Cypriot side's entrance to EU as the only representative of island set the government in action.

Gul said that a referendum would be held on the island on April 24 and the people would take its decision, adding that they would respect to the decision of the people. He said that it was important to follow this process carefully and to decide by evaluating without heroism and emotions. Noting that in recent days Greek Cypriot side was trying to delay and hold referendum after April 24, Gul said, ''it is an initiative far away from good will. Delaying referendum means Greek Cypriot side's being member of EU as of May 1 by representing the whole island. This situation will reinforce the position of Greek Cypriot side and also will mortgage Turkey's membership to EU.''

Noting that this development was against the agreement, Gul said, ''the intention of Greek side to prevent referendum is completely far away from good will. We, as Turkey, will be loyal to agreement. We call the U.N. Secretary General and the EU for mission.'' Gul said that Annan Plan had positive and negative sides and added that he thought positive sides of the plan were more. Noting that if the results of referendum would become ''yes'' in both sides, it would have some economic results, Gul said that new houses and business places would be built for those who wanted to change their houses and business places.

Gul said, ''regardless of the decision which will be taken, Turkey will continue to support TRNC. We will continue to provide every type of support both economic and political aspects. Also as a new situation will emerge, international society will have to fulfill its responsibilities. Everybody should make sacrifice. Certainly Turkey's economic and political support to Turkish Cypriots will be more than everybody's. There will be the support of not only the state but also private sector. Thus, activities have already started.''

Turkish Chief Of General Staff: Annan Plan Has Positive And Negative Sides

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ANKARA - There were positive and negative sides of the United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General Kofi Annan's plan for Cyprus, Turkish Chief of General Staff Hilmi Ozkok said on Tuesday.

Ozkok held a news conference in which he said, ''we respect to the view of our people that 'Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) should always assume a definite attitude towards every important issue saying 'yes' or 'no' and it should share its view with the public opinion.' But, TSK should not be expected to be the side which shows its own reaction and which shares its every view with the public opinion.''

Relationship between Cyprus and Turkey's security was related with preservation of Turkey's rights and interests in the East Mediterranean, Ozkok said on Tuesday. What was important from now on was to provide Turkish Cypriot people with the suitable atmosphere in which they could make the best decision for themselves with their free will and without any pressure in the simultaneous referenda to be held in the island, Ozkok said.

Ozkok noted that United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General Kofi Annan's plan for Cyprus had positive and negative sides. ''We respect to the view of our people that 'Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) should always assume a definite attitude towards every important issue saying 'yes' or 'no' and it should share its view with the public opinion.' But, TSK should not be expected to be the side which shows its own reaction and which shares its every view with the public opinion,'' Ozkok said.

Ozkok went on saying, ''the train for referendum has set off from New York and continues its journey towards the end rapidly. What is important from now on is to provide Turkish Cypriot people with the suitable atmosphere in which they can make the best decision for themselves with their free will and without any pressure in the simultaneous referenda to be held in the island.''

''On the other side, as I have stated before, Cyprus is not an issue concerning only our kinsmen in Cyprus. Turkey's security is in question. Relationship between Cyprus and Turkey's security is not as superficial as to be explained as geographical closeness between the island and Turkey. It is related with preservation of our rights and interests in the East Mediterranean. It is the Turkish parliament which will make a decision on behalf of Turkish nation about the proposal for a settlement in the island. We have full belief that Turkish Cypriot people and Turkish parliament will take the best decision,'' Ozkok added.

It would not be suitable for him to say ''yes'' or ''no'' to the United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General Kofi Annan's plan for Cyprus in the simultaneous referenda to be held in Cyprus on April 24, Turkish Chief of General Staff said. Asked if he could say ''yes'' or ''no'' to the Annan plan, Ozkok said, ''the plan mainly consists of federal laws and international agreements. It concerns everybody. I won't be suitable for me to say ''yes'' or ''no'' to this plan.''

When asked to comment on words of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said that Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) President Rauf Denktas should express his views in Cyprus instead of Turkey, Ozkok said, ''it won't be right for me to express my views on an issue on which the prime minister expresses his view. It is TRNC President who will decide on this issue.''

''We believe that it is important to review federal laws and international agreements which are the determinants of a new order to be established in the island and to make necessary changes and arrangements for a fair and lasting order,'' Ozkok said. Ozkok stated that he had expressed his views on strategic importance of Cyprus for Turkey's security in his press conferences and briefings for many times. Therefore, he did not want to reiterate his views in this press conference, Ozkok said.

Ozkok noted that Cyprus' importance for Turkey's security could be based on two important grounds from TSK's perspective. ''One of them is Turkish Republic's and TSK's responsibility to provide our kinsmen in Cyprus with security under the Treaty of Guarantee. The second is strategic importance of Cyprus for Turkey's security as clearly expressed in the Treaty of Alliance. The two basic principles continue to be important for Turkey because stability and balance in Cyprus and East Mediterranean can only be ensured this way. The first article of the Treaty of Guarantee doesn't allow whole or a part of Cyprus to join any political or economic union of which Turkey and Greece are not members,'' Ozkok said.

Ozkok stated that some circles claimed that those principles were no more important. On the other hand, some countries wanted changes to those agreements, Ozkok noted. Ozkok said, ''however, we sincerely believe that these agreements are necessary and there is still need for us to undertake our duties and responsibilities stemming from these agreements. I would like to remind those, who claim that Cyprus doesn't have any strategic importance, the reason why Britain tries this much to maintain its sovereign bases in the island.''

Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was founded in 1983 and was announced as a sovereign state, Ozkok pointed out. Ozkok said that TRNC was not recognized by any other country except Turkey and economic embargo on this country had not been lifted. Noting that Greek Cypriot side had applied for European Union (EU) membership, violating the Treaty of Guarantee, Ozkok said that EU's decision to admit Greek Cypriot side as its member could not be prevented. Ozkok said, ''in fact, nobody has been adequately explained that political situation and balances of security in the East Mediterranean will be deteriorated with this decision.'' If a solution to Cyprus issue was not found till May 1, the Greek Cypriot side would join the EU under the name ''Republic of Cyprus'' but EU acquis would not be put into practice in TRNC, Ozkok noted.

Ozkok said, ''after this date, EU will be a side to Cyprus issue. All these developments have confused views and minds of our kinsmen in TRNC. Two different points of views have occurred in a national cause for the first time and this difference of opinion has been reflected to Turkey.''

TSK had openly, rationalistically and objectively expressed its views and proposals about solution of Cyprus issue in legal and constitutional platforms in every opportunity, Ozkok stated. Ozkok said, ''in this context, we expressed our views and laid down our proposals in National Security Council (NSC) meetings held on January 23 and April 5. And, we sent a letter to the Prime Ministry in which we expressed our views and laid down our proposals on February 15, March 9 and March 28. We informed the General Staff about ongoing developments in the Cyprus negotiation process and our views. But, when this cooperation is taken into consideration, nobody should think that we are of the same opinion on every issue and every problem. New York negotiation process went out of the limits we drew in NSC meeting on January 23.''

Touching on final Annan plan, Ozkok said, ''despite its positive sides, we can say the it doesn't totally meet our demands. We see serious problems in implementing the plan. Although the Treaty of Guarantee and Treaty of Alliance are preserved without any changes, it is true that some adaptations will be made and additional responsibilities will be undertaken in implementation of the plan as a necessity of additional protocols. We think that these adaptations will not prevent us from using our rights as guarantor power. On the other hand, although its number is reduced, TSK will continue to stay in the island until Turkey decides to withdraw its soldiers from the island.''

Ozkok went on saying, ''we believe that it is important to review federal laws and international agreements which are the determinants of a new order to be established in the island and to make necessary changes and arrangements for a fair and lasting order. Under the plan, the transition period is very short. This period is not sufficient for the most sensitive phase of implementation of the plan. Moreover, we think that this short transition period may cause serious problems and we can face important problems in ensuring peace and tranquility in the island.''

Under the plan, 57 thousand Turkish Cypriots would become migrants due to the territory to be given to the Greek Cypriots, Ozkok said. Ozkok noted that this number would reach 82 thousand in three years due to the Greek Cypriots who would migrate to the north of the island. ''We think serious social incidents may occur in Cyprus if sources can't be found for dwelling and employment of these kinsmen,'' Ozkok said. Ozkok emphasized that one of the most important issue related with the plan was to include derogations, aiming to protect Turkish Cypriot Constituent State, in the EU primary law. ''This should be ensured. Otherwise, we think that serious problems may emerge for Turkish existence and continuation of bi-zonality in the island. We also think that serious stability and security problems may emerge in the island. In fact, almost all jurists says that an agreement on Cyprus can be made a part of primary law of the EU if derogations are passed by the national parliaments of EU member countries. And, we agree with this view of jurists,'' Ozkok added.

Gen. Ozkok replied questions of reporters at a press conference. When asked to evaluate the possibility of both side's saying ''yes'' in the referendum in Cyprus, Gen. Ozkok said, ''it depends on the target. According to our point of view, President Rauf Denktas of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has been exerting efforts to make the result ''negative''. But, public surveys reveal that the result will be ''positive''. It is a decision which Turkish Cypriots will directly take.''

''On the other hand, the Greek Cypriot leader made negative statements. He expressed that they wanted Greek Cypriots to say no in the referendum. If one side says no, the process completely ends. But if the two sides say yes, process will continue. In that case, the result will depend on the decision of Turkish Parliament. If the Greek side says no and the Turkish side says yes, it will mean that it will bring forth some derogations for the north. It can really be like that. Thus, it is a diplomatic game. It is an issue which should be approached sensitively. This decision will completely be taken by people of Cyprus and also by the Turkish parliament in Turkey,'' he said.

Upon a question about positive elements in United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan's plan, Gen. Ozkok said, ''the first positive element is bi-zonality. The second positive element is that although the TRNC will lose its sovereignty, it will have bilateral sovereignty and political equality as a constituent state. And the third positive element is that TRNC people will live in a more comfortable and peaceful milieu.''

When asked what were the differences between previous texts and the final text regarding security issues in Annan Plan, Gen. Ozkok said, ''there is a progress on the guarantee issue. As the milieu, which we will guarantee, has changed, a protocol was made to adjust it to the new milieu. Some recoveries were made.''

Gen. Ozkok said that in the previous texts, there had been guarantees for whole of Cyprus yet that constitutional orders were guaranteed in the final plan both for United Cyprus Republic and the constituent states. Gen. Ozkok said adjustments were made to limitations, for example about the tonnage, which is important for armed forces. He said an arrangement was made regarding withdrawal of units.

When a journalist said that General Staff conveyed its views to the government for three times and that the issue was later discussed at the National Security Council (NSC), and asked whether or not he could say ''yes'' or ''no'' following this process, Gen. Ozkok said, ''you should not say 'yes' or 'no' to the plan. Majority of them are comprised of federal arrangements and international agreements. It comes to decision mechanisms extending from the Central Bank to Foreign Ministry and Transportation Ministry. It will not be appropriate for me to say 'yes' or 'no'.''

When a journalist asked if Turkey loses Cyprus cause in case ''yes'' vote is cast in the referendum, Gen. Ozkok said, ''our reason and heart have never contradicted this much.'' Gen. Ozkok said expressions like ''lost'', ''given'', ''taken'' were not diplomatic, stating that, ''as Turkey, we should take steps under the guide of our reason.''

Erdogan: Turkish Soldiers Will Not Leave Cyprus

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ABOARD IZMIR PLANE - Turkish soldiers would not leave Cyprus if one of the sides did not approve it, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said early on Sunday aboard the plane en route from Turkey to Japan.

Replying to questions how he evaluated criticisms that United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General Kofi Annan's plan for Cyprus had not been well-explained to people, Erdogan said that he had announced steps taken by his government in not only meetings of his party but also at the parliament.

Erdogan said, ''despite the statements we have made, the opposition dwells upon only one issue and it is consistence of the plan of 9 thousand pages. They don't have any other source for reaction. They don't think how these 9 thousand pages were written and evaluated and how these steps are being taken. Majority of deputies have not read the text so far. Although they say they are reading it, 90 percent of them aren't reading it. The plan has been studied and summarized. Our framework and principles are certain. We are saying within the framework of these principles that a United Cyprus Republic will be formed in the island by two constituent states.''

''Although there has been a Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is not recognized by any country except Turkey, in the island so far, there will be two constituent states after an agreement is reached. One of these constituent states will be the Greek Cypriot Constituent State and the other will be the Turkish Cypriot Constituent State. These Turkish and Greek Cypriot people will establish United Cyprus Republic, a federal state,'' Erdogan said.

Erdogan added, ''(Greek Cypriot leader Tassos) Papadopoulos says in a crying manner that he won't give my state to anybody. We should not consider the issue this way. He will share his state with us. Moreover, there are more interesting expressions. There is an expression saying ''neither the north can dominate over the south nor the south can dominate over the north.'' Here, the north of the island will gain independence. We have always said that we don't think we have gained 100 percent success here.''

The government had brought the ideal position for TRNC, Erdogan stated.

Erdogan said, ''we have brought the ideal position for TRNC with 'win-win' understanding. What has the south of the island gained? The south mainly gained territory. What else has happened? There will be Greek Cypriots who will move from the south to the north of the island. You are making an agreement here. When making such an agreement, you can't unilaterally tell the other side 'to get whatever it wants.' In such a case, you should discuss Lausanne Treaty. Under the Lausanne Treaty, parties gained and gave something. Were those who gave the islands under Lausanne Treaty betraying their country? It is very ugly to bring these issues onto agenda. We, as the government of Turkish Republic, consider Cyprus a national cause. But, when we consider it a national cause, we want our kinsmen in TRNC to become a state.''

''We consider the issue a national cause. In which international meeting Turkish language was used as an international language? But, after TRNC accepts the plan, Turkish will start to be used as international language in all meetings. Turkish language should start to be used in institutions and organizations which don't have any technical problems as of May 1 and we have ensured it to be used in other grounds within five years. Steps will be taken for use of Turkish language in other places in the possible shortest time. We will send around 200 staff to international organizations. They will make simultaneous translation. All these are successes gained by this agreement. I think it is not right to ignore them. We have also stated the negative aspects of the plan,'' Erdogan said.

Erdogan went on saying, ''some say that this number of Greek Cypriots will move to the north of the island. This rate was certain and it was 21 percent. We reduced it to 18 percent. And, they will move to the north in a certain period of time. How many Greek Cypriots will move to the north and how many won't is another issue.''

''Some say that it is a step to send Turks away from the island. There is not such thing. There are certain number of Turkish citizens living in TRNC. Let's consider the number as around 30 thousand. We have achieved to increase this number to 45 thousand in negotiations. Why don't we discuss these positive aspects? They say that Turkish soldiers will leave the island. Why don't you talk about the situation of Greek soldiers. There will be 650 Turkish soldiers in the island by 2018. And, the number of the Greek Cypriots will also be equal to that of Turkish soldiers by this day. The presence of soldiers will be discussed every three years. But, sides should have a mutual compromise on this issue. This means that our soldiers won't leave the island if one of the sides doesn't approve it,'' Erdogan noted.

Erdogan stated that nothing would change if there was another government in Turkey or if the government changed.

Asked if his words could be a message to TRNC President Rauf Denktas, Erdogan said, ''I responded to articles and news in the newspapers since I don't want my people to be deceived. Unfortunately, some propaganda on Cyprus is being made in Turkey. I wonder why propaganda is made in Turkey. It should be made in Cyprus. That is, demonstrations should be made in Cyprus instead of Turkey. Everything should be discussed in Cyprus not in Turkey.''

Erdogan said that Turkish government was sensitive about interests of Turkish Republic and TRNC.

Noting that insolubility was not a solution, Erdogan stated that politics was not the art of causing problems but an art of finding solutions.

Stating that those who could not solve the Cyprus issue for 30-40 years, Erdogan said that they should take their steps, considering the issue well.

Replying to a question, Erdogan said, ''I should have asked (TRNC President) Denktas if he would come to Turkey. But, I forgot asking him. He should do whatever necessary for Cyprus issue in the island. He should explain everything related with Cyprus issue in the s-island. But, I regret that TRNC President comes to Turkey and holds meetings with marginal groups. And, I told it to him. He came to Turkey to attend a meeting held by Ankara Chamber of Commerce. Majority of those who joined this meeting were those who called Turkish Armed Forces as ''occupier forces.'' I told him that I felt sorry seeing him in the same photograph with that group.''

Erdogan to Denktas: Say What You Want, But Say it in Cyprus

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Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) President Rauf Denktas, 'I would not want to see you in those pictures,' by referring to a meeting held last week at the Bursa bar in which Denktas made a speech. When Denktas asked if Erdogan or deputies would be coming to Cyprus for the campaign, Erdogan said, no, 'but I forgot to ask whether or not he will be coming to Turkey, because I needed to ask him to do that too."

Erdogan reminded those who criticized the latest Annan Plan of the Lausanne Treaty which also contained concessions. Some compromises were made in Lausanne, Erdogan asked, "did the people who gave away those islands betray the country?" The Prime Minister continued: "Excuse me but you have a mutual agreement before you. In the making of this agreement, nobody said 'here it is, take whatever you want'." He said although they considered Cyprus to be a national matter, it was 'ugly and inappropriate' to react against the Annan Plan to that extreme. Erdogan noted that Turkish has become an international language. The Prime Minister continued to say: "I personally set a goal to have Turkish in practice at institutions that have no technical problems by May 1. There was a record for 5 years in other places, we surpassed it." Erdogan acknowledged that they would train nearly 200 people as Turkish experts and send them to international institutions.

Erdogan is critical of the opposition's methods and style when criticizing the government's Cyprus policy. He expressed his trouble saying: 'they carried the thing to a very ugly situation. There are insulting words. There are very ugly things that marginal parties there and leaders of political parties related to our country have done. Of course, the Turkish Foreign Affairs closely follows these developments. The steps taken should not have brought us to this point, because the Turkish Government is at least as sensitive as them about the interests of both the Republic of Turkey and the TRNC."

'Bargaining Over What Turkey Needs'

George Lordos presents his opinion here:

TWO DEMANDS of the Turkish side, that often become the object of great confusion by the mass media, are:
(1) The derogations from the acquis communautaire should be permanent in nature,
(2) The agreement should be part of EU primary law, otherwise the agreement will be vulnerable to lawsuits in European Courts.

Regarding the first point, it is of course a major issue in the negotiations. Our position, and Europe’s position, is that there should be no permanent derogations on basic principles, but only temporary derogations where absolutely necessary. If our view prevails, given that the referee role of the UN is already in full swing, one day the acquis communautaire shall fully apply in Cyprus – a point that is rightly a “red line” for Greek Cypriot voters who will be called on to approve or reject the deal. We await the results of the negotiations on this first point.

Regarding the second point, that the agreement should become part of EU primary law, the matter is less political and more technical, provided always that the content of the solution itself is genuinely acceptable as a compromise. Primary law in Europe – the superior law that trumps all other laws – consists of Treaties between sovereign states. For instance, Maastricht, Schengen, and the Treaty of Accession signed in Athens on April 16, 2003, whereby Cyprus became a full member of the EU Below the Treaties, the next layer of the EU legal system consists of community law created by decisions of the ECJ and ECHR. Constitutions of individual member states, such as the constitution contained in the Annan Plan, occupy the third layer, below the first two. Turkey is asking that any agreement reached should be part of EU primary law, so that there is no risk that provisions of the agreement can be overturned in European Courts through private lawsuits.

In other words, Turkey is asking for guarantees that we will “keep our word”, so that she will agree to a negotiated compromise solution. Turkey argues that it is in nobody’s interest, having reached and implemented a negotiated solution, to have that solution not stand up in European Courts.

Should we give these guarantees without receiving something else in return? Of course not. This problem did not exist before the signature of the Treaty of Accession in Athens, and therefore it was created because Turkey and Denktash caused the collapse of the previous settlement opportunities in Copenhagen and in the Hague. However, Turkey is now in a much weaker bargaining position because she does not have the luxury to torpedo the process she started without shooting herself in the foot, and thus she must pay for this mistake at the bargaining table. The intermediaries, who are focused on a double ‘yes’ at the referenda, know this.

Turkey and Denktash brought this problem upon themselves and they must offer us something in order to be rid of this problem. By demanding guarantees of performance of our obligations under the agreement, Turkey is strengthening our arguments for effective guarantees of the performance of her obligations in return. For instance, we need effective guarantees that the areas subject to territorial adjustment will be returned according to the agreed timetable, that the Turkish troops will leave, and that there will be no future flow of settlers or illegal immigrants from Turkey. I believe, and I hope, that we are using Turkey’s demands on the second point to argue and negotiate far more convincingly for these guarantees that are important to us in Lucerne.

'We Will Conquer Greece if Necessary' - Alemdaroglu

Whilst we have reported on the 'intemperate' language of elements within the Orthadox church in relation to recent developments, they are also joined by significant figures in Turkish life. This from here:

While the Turkish side is pressuring for an agreeable solution on the island, Istanbul University President Prof. Kemal Alemdaroglu made some interesting statements. In a speech he delivered at the premiere of a documentary called Canakkale Epic 1915, Alemdaroglu sent this message to the committee conducting the Cyprus negotiations: "Do not give up any Cyprus land. If necessary, we can give up 100,000 more martyrs and take all of Cyprus and Greece." It attracted attention that there were retired generals among those who applauded Alemdaroglu.

The premiere of the documentary directed by Istanbul University's School of Communication undergraduate student, Kursat Kizbaz, was held at Lutfi Kirdar International Congress and Exhibition Center. Alemdaroglu said he witnessed youth demonstrations where 'Cyprus is ours' was chanted for the last 50 years. Alemdaroglu said, 'I say to the committee in Switzerland: We have 25,000 martyrs. We could have 45,000 more, 100,000 more and take Cyprus and Greece."

Meanwhile, Kizbaz said he received considerable support from the General Staff for the 42-minute documentary film on the Canakkale War, made after 1 and a half years of research.

And this from here, originally published in October 1999, indicates the previous track record of the man:

...Professor Alemdaroglu, who was courteous enough to invite a Greek politician whose country was regarded as "enemy" until very recently, announced from the podium that under his leadership the university was going to conduct an extensive "war" against fundamentalism. He did not stop at that point and continued his declaration of "war," also against Second Republicanists; e.g. the intellectuals who suggest enriching the idea of the republic with democratic values.

If I am not mistaken, the rector of Istanbul University is a descendant of Alemdar Mustafa Pasha, who rebelled against the sultan in 1808. Professor Alemdaroglu is known to support not-so-democratic practices in the country and has been responsible for dismissing professors with views diverging from those of the university, which has had a liberal tradition and was a haven for scholars escaping the Nazi regime in Germany. History Professor Ahmet Agirakca, for instance, lost his position at Istanbul University last year after he attended a human rights group activity and uttered some words in support of its cause.

It is not surprising that Professor Alemdaroglu announced an all-out war against undesired intellectuals on behalf of the university he presides over. I cannot help but ask: How can a university, as an institution, conduct a war? Universities refrain from intermingling with the hostile atmosphere of the country even during wars. How and with what would Professor Alemdaroglu lead his military campaign? I do not know if the events of the first academic day at Istanbul University can be taken as an indication: He ordered roadblocks and set up checkpoints in order to prevent female students with headscarves as well as men with beards and long hair from entering the university....

'Istanbul Lifted by Cyprus Negotiations'

So reports the UK's Financial Times here:

Turkish stocks ended at year-highs for the fifth session in a row Thursday as sentiment remained buoyed by hopes of a settlement over Cyprus. The ISE-100 index rose 0.6 per cent to 20,472.61...

'The Greek Cypriot Attitude' - Gunduz Aktan

This lengthy piece appeared in both the Turkish newspaper 'Radikal' and translated into English in the 'Turkish Daily News'. The introduction to Gunduz Aktan's analysis does not immediatetly inspire confidence. The author claims as his primary source in understanding Tassos Papadopoulos the press briefings given by Rauf Denktas. However, he goes on:

...According to what has been reported in the media, the Greek Cypriot negotiation demands are as follows: Turks cannot be compensated for things done between 1963 and 1974. Let the solution be based not on two nations but on "two peoples = one nation." In other words, let there be a single state. Let the land to be transferred from the KKTC to the south be put under immediate U.N. control. If the 114 federal laws, around 6,000 pages, and the agreement are not completed before a solution, let there be no referenda. Let the solution be in agreement with the European Union Acquis. In other words, let the special provisions protecting Turks not become EU primary law. Those older than 65 and those moving to Karpas should not be included in the 21 percent Greek Cypriot migration. Let property be returned to its original owners and no limitations imposed on buying property. Let the Greek Cypriots who move to the north be able to exercise all their political rights and get elected to the federal assembly. The Turkish Army's presence should immediately be decreased to 6,000 members. Additional demands are constantly being inserted into this list at every round of talks. The United Nations, by proposing a very large peacekeeping force, thinks that a solution will cause a conflict. The Greek Cypriots, fearing the same thing, want all those who came from Anatolia to return home because they might arm themselves.

This shows, as noted in a March 10 Foreign Ministry statement, that the Greek Cypriots do not want a just solution.

This extremist attitude on the part of the Greek Cypriots might be a ploy by them to prevent amendment of the Annan plan in our favor. If this is true, this would mean that the Greek Cypriots are happy with the original version of the plan and want to preserve it as is.

In public polls in some Greek Cypriot newspapers, the votes against the plan seem very high. To those who know that the Greek Cypriot media is in cooperation with its government in this national issue, learning that these polls are phony and that their real aim is to pressure the Turkish Cypriots to vote against the plan would come as no surprise.

Please, where is the evidence for this assertion?

If U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan fails to include Turkey's mandatory demands in the final document because of this Greek Cypriot intransigence, the Turkish Cypriots might reject the plan in the referendum. Papadopoulos might even want this. He is aiming to prevent the formulation of a solution by May 1, thinking he can up his demands to the Turkish side when Greek Cyprus becomes an EU member. This is a very risky tactic for both Greek-Turkish and Turkish-EU relations.

Greek Cypriots, because they believe in their righteousness, might pursue such a reckless policy and assume that the EU would understand. The U.N. Security Council recognized Greek Cyprus as the government in its Resolution 184 (1964), even though they had violated the internationally recognized Cypriot Constitution of 1963, segregating the Turks and punishing the small Turkish community. The U.S. Congress placed an arms embargo on Turkey after the 1974 intervention. The illegal Greek Cypriot application to become an EU member was accepted in 1993. The EU held the Turkish side as solely responsible for the solution of the problem for Turkey's EU membership. This stance by the West, recognizing Greek Cyprus as the real owner of the island -- while viewing the Turks as an unfortunate historical remnant of the Ottomans -- caused the Greek Cypriots to see themselves as always being in the right. And now they don't want to make any concessions, knowing that their EU membership is assured.

These conditions and the fact that Turkey and most of the Turkish Cypriots want EU membership no matter what ensure that the Greek Cypriots don't need to make concessions, anyway. The acceptance of all of Annan's preconditions for the recommencement of negotiations, the censorship of Denktas's statements -- as if some don't want the Greek Cypriot intransigence to become known -- and describing an agreement by May 1 as very good and the Greek Cypriot membership alone as a disaster are all ruining our negotiation stance.

'...Turkey and most of the Turkish Cypriots want EU membership no matter what...' This is getting tiring - where is the evidence to support this spurious contention?

If the government ignores our mandatory demands, does not have the courage to say that it would reject the plan put to a referendum and does not pressure the EU, we cannot expect any change in the Greek Cypriot attitude. No one should dismiss the potential of the political instability of a solution based entirely on the concessions we made.

Dentash Sees a Solution as 'Inevitable'

The Turkish Daily News editorialise here about the current state of play and focuses on the relationship between Turkey and Dentash:

The Turkish government sees very clearly that the past negative attitude of the Turks has backfired and has led to the portrayal of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots as villains in the international arena. It also sees that the international community and especially the western powers are now determined to solve this problem and whoever stands in their way will be punished.

So Denktas, who has displayed a negative attitude in the past, has been forced to mellow as the Ankara government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan has displayed a strong political will to appcase (sic) the international community and help solve the Cyprus problem.

So far, so orthodox as a general reading of the situation. Yet the editorial goes on to make this intriguing assertion:

But in Ankara Denktas and his followers are making a last ditch effort. Denktas has already told people privately that he sees a solution imposed by the western powers as inevitable by May 1 and thus nothing he does can prevent this.

Difficult to judge the status of this claim but it makes for interesting reading nonetheless. The editorial then concludes:

He knows that if he pulls out of the negotiations Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat will take over as negotiator and finish off the deal. So he cannot afford to leave the stage and lose the initiative. So Denktas comes to Ankara, makes threats, warns Erdogan he can be as intransigent as before and then leaves. The chess game in Cyprus continues. Denktas is being Denktas but the peace process is taking its own natural course thanks to Ankara displaying the strong political will to defy the intransigent lobbies.